THE SILENT GENOCIDE
📈 THE TRAJECTORY: IT’S GETTING WORSE
This isn’t a crisis that peaked and declined. It’s accelerating:
Recent Trends
- 2024: 3,100 Christians killed (Open Doors)
- Jan-Aug 2025: 7,087 Christians killed (Intersociety)
- Projected 2025 total: Over 10,000 deaths at current rate
At the current trajectory, 2025 will be the deadliest year on record.
That’s more than 27 Christians killed every single day in Nigeria.
By the time you finish reading this investigation, statistically, at least one more Nigerian Christian will have been killed.
Expanding Geography
The violence isn’t contained—it’s spreading:
- Originally concentrated in northeast, now throughout Middle Belt
- Spreading south toward traditionally Christian regions
- Areas once considered safe now experiencing attacks
- Pattern suggests systematic territorial expansion
Evolving Tactics
- More sophisticated weapons and coordination
- Increased use of kidnapping for ransom and forced conversion
- Targeting of Christian leadership and institutions
- Strategic timing during harvest season to maximize food insecurity
🔮 WHAT COMES NEXT: THREE SCENARIOS
Scenario 1: Status Quo (Most Likely)
What Happens: International community continues silence, Nigerian government maintains minimal response, violence continues at accelerating rate.
Outcome by 2030:
- 100,000+ Christian deaths
- Complete depopulation of Christian communities in Middle Belt
- Nigeria effectively partitioned along religious lines
- Regional destabilization spreading to neighboring countries
Scenario 2: Escalation (Concerning Possibility)
What Happens: Christian communities, abandoned by government and international community, begin organized self-defense. Situation escalates to full sectarian war.
Outcome:
- Nigeria descends into Syria-style civil war
- Regional powers drawn in
- Humanitarian catastrophe of unprecedented scale
- Destabilization of West Africa
Scenario 3: Intervention (Least Likely, Most Hopeful)
What Happens: International pressure forces Nigerian government action, perpetrators prosecuted, victims protected, communities rebuilt.
Requirements:
- Formal genocide designation
- International sanctions tied to accountability
- Protection for Christian communities
- Justice and prosecution of perpetrators
- Humanitarian aid and rebuilding assistance
This third scenario is only possible if the silence ends. If people know. If they care. If they demand action.