The United States and Israel Are at War With Iran
The special report on a conflict that began at dawn, a nuclear program under fire, a regime possibly decapitated, and a Middle East now in open eruption — with no clear off-ramp in sight.
WHAT IS HAPPENING
The United States and Israel launched coordinated strikes against Iran early Saturday morning in what Trump called “major combat operations” — the most significant U.S. military action since the Iraq War. The operation has two official names: the Pentagon is calling it Operation Epic Fury. Israel is calling it Operation Roaring Lion.
The strikes began while millions of Iranians were heading to work and school — Saturday is the first day of the Iranian work week. There was no warning to the civilian population.
Targets confirmed so far: Tehran’s political and military command district, the IRGC intelligence headquarters, nuclear and missile production facilities in Isfahan, Qom, Kermanshah, Karaj, and Tabriz, and missile launcher sites across western Iran. Seven strikes alone confirmed in the district housing the offices of Supreme Leader Khamenei, the presidential palace, and the National Security Council.
This is not a one-night operation. U.S. military sources told CNN the planning calls for several days of continuous strikes. Netanyahu said the operation will last “as long as needed.”
THE DECAPITATION QUESTION
The most explosive unconfirmed development of the morning: Israeli Channel 12, citing unnamed Israeli intelligence sources, reported that Khamenei was “likely killed” in an early strike, with “growing indications” to that effect. Iran’s state media and officials have claimed both Khamenei and President Pezeshkian are safe. There is no independent confirmation in either direction.
What is confirmed: Khamenei was not in Tehran when the strikes began — Iranian officials told Reuters he had been moved to a secure location in advance. That secure location appears to have been identified. Satellite imagery reportedly showed a strike on the bunker where he was being held.
If Khamenei is dead or critically wounded, the command structure of the Iranian regime becomes the central unknown of this conflict.
Senior IRGC commanders and political officials have been killed. That is confirmed by an Iranian source close to the establishment speaking to Reuters.
IRAN’S RETALIATION — ALREADY UNDERWAY
Iran did not wait. Within hours of the first strikes, it launched what one analyst called an “unprecedented wave” of retaliatory missiles across the Middle East — using what may remain of its ballistic arsenal before further strikes degrade it further.
Confirmed targets of Iranian retaliation: Al Udeid Air Base (Qatar), U.S. 5th Fleet headquarters (Bahrain, confirmed hit with infrastructure damage), U.S. base at Erbil International Airport (Iraq), sites in Kuwait, Jordan, and the UAE. Bahrain confirmed its U.S. naval base was struck. Jordan shot down two ballistic missiles. Qatar intercepted multiple waves. One person was killed in Abu Dhabi by shrapnel from an intercepted missile.
Iran’s Supreme National Security Council declared all U.S. and Israeli interests in the region “legitimate targets.” An IRGC parliamentary official stated: “We will have no red lines.”
Missiles are continuing to be detected. A new launch of ballistic missiles from Iran was confirmed by the IDF within the past hour. Sirens are active in northern Israel.
THE SCHOOL STRIKE
The most politically charged single event of the day so far: an Israeli strike hit a girls’ elementary school in Minab, in Iran’s southern Hormozgan province. Death toll reports range from 40 to 53 students killed. Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi posted an image of the aftermath: “Dozens of innocent children have been murdered at this site alone.”
Israel’s military said it was “looking into the reports.” It has not confirmed the strike. The school week begins on Saturday in Iran — the building was full.
This will define international perception of this operation regardless of what follows militarily.
THE DIPLOMACY THAT WAS ABANDONED
The timing is not incidental — it is the accountability core of this story.
On Thursday, February 26, U.S. and Iranian negotiators completed a third round of talks in Geneva. Oman’s foreign minister called it “significant progress.” On Friday, February 27, Oman’s FM flew to Washington to brief U.S. officials on what he believed was genuine movement — including Iran’s reported agreement to degrade its nuclear stockpile to near-unrefined levels. Trump said publicly that he “preferred diplomacy.”
The bombs fell Saturday morning.
The question that will not go away: Was diplomacy ever the objective, or was it the alibi?
The administration’s pre-recorded video — released after strikes began — answers that question in its own way. You do not record a war announcement in advance if you are waiting to see whether talks succeed.
WHAT TRUMP SAID
In an eight-minute Truth Social video recorded before the strikes began and released as bombs were falling, Trump said:
The strikes aim to “destroy their missiles and raze their missile industry to the ground.” The U.S. will “annihilate their navy.” Iran “rejected every opportunity to renounce their nuclear ambitions.” American casualties are possible — “that often happens in war.”
And to the Iranian people directly: “When we are finished, take over your government. It will be yours to take. This will be probably your only chance for generations.”
This is regime change language. It is explicit. The operation’s military objectives and political objectives are now inseparable.
WHAT THE REGION IS DOING
France: Macron warned of “grave consequences for international peace and security” and called for immediate de-escalation.
Saudi Arabia / UAE: Crown Prince MBS and UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed spoke by phone, expressing solidarity after Iranian missiles targeted Gulf states — both had previously counseled the U.S. against attacking Iran.
Iran’s exiled Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi: Issued a statement calling on Iranian military and police to abandon the regime and “join the people.” Called on Trump to protect civilian lives.
Iranian opposition inside Iran: NPR reached residents in Tehran by phone before communications were cut. One woman who had protested the regime said: “We are really hopeful that the regime will fall this time.”
Australia: Prime Minister Albanese expressed concern. No endorsement.
International Red Cross: Called the escalation a “dangerous chain reaction” with “potentially devastating consequences for civilians.”
What to Watch Today
WHAT TO WATCH IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS
— Khamenei status. Confirmed alive, confirmed dead, or confirmed missing — each outcome reshapes the next 48 hours completely.
— Iranian missile capacity. How many launches can Iran sustain? June 2025 strikes degraded but didn’t eliminate their arsenal. We’re about to find out what’s left.
— U.S. base casualties. The 5th Fleet HQ in Bahrain took infrastructure damage. No U.S. personnel killed as of this filing. That can change.
— Congressional response. No authorization vote. No prior notice to Congress confirmed. That fight is beginning.
— Oil markets. Strait of Hormuz is 20% of global oil supply. Iran has not yet threatened to close it — but that card is still in their hand.
— Tehran communications. Cell service and internet are cut in parts of the capital. Independent verification of anything inside Iran is severely limited.
Bottom Line
The United States is now in an active shooting war with Iran — not a strike, not a raid, but a multi-day sustained military campaign with stated objectives that include the destruction of Iran's military, its nuclear program, and implicitly its government. Iran is firing back across six countries. The region is in open eruption.
The Geneva talks weren't failed diplomacy. They were the waiting room.
TSM will continue filing as this develops.