The Drums of War: U.S. Military Ready to Strike Iran as Early as This Weekend
The United States military has informed President Trump it is ready to launch strikes against Iran as early as Saturday, February 21. He has not yet made a final decision. That sentence should stop every American in their tracks this morning.
The Pentagon has been moving warships, submarines, air defense systems, and dozens of additional aircraft into the Middle East for days. Two aircraft carrier strike groups are now in the region - the USS Abraham Lincoln is already there, and the USS Gerald Ford is steaming through the Mediterranean toward the area. According to multiple U.S. officials, all forces required for action will be in place by mid-March at the latest, but the window could open far sooner.
National security advisers huddled in the White House Situation Room on Wednesday to discuss options. White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt told reporters there are "many arguments one can make in favor of a strike against Iran" while calling diplomacy the first priority. Trump himself posted on Truth Social that it "may be necessary" to use the Diego Garcia base and the Fairford airfield in England to "eradicate" what he called a dangerous regime.
What would a strike look like? Sources describe a massive, weeks-long joint U.S.-Israel military campaign - broader in scope than the 12-day Israeli-led conflict last June. Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Khamenei responded this week by posting an AI-generated image of the USS Ford at the bottom of the ocean, writing that Iran possesses weapons capable of sinking it. He warned that any U.S. attack would ignite a regional war.
Diplomatic talks in Geneva on Tuesday produced what both sides called "guiding principles" but no agreement. One Trump adviser told Axios the odds of military action in the coming weeks are 90 percent. Congress has not been formally consulted. The War Powers Act requires it.
Quick Hits
- — Poland has banned all Chinese-made vehicles from entering its military sites, citing data security concerns over onboard sensors. Part of a growing Western pattern of treating Chinese technology as a national security risk at the infrastructure level. [Source]
- — Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei posted an AI-generated image of the USS Gerald Ford aircraft carrier sunk at the bottom of the ocean this week, directly responding to Trump's public threats. Iran's foreign minister said Tuesday's Geneva nuclear talks produced "good progress" - a claim American officials did not echo. [Source]
- — Berkshire Hathaway's new CEO Greg Abel is set to publish his first-ever shareholder letter on February 28, his first major public communication since replacing Buffett as CEO in January. Investors and analysts are watching closely for signals about how Berkshire will be run in the post-Buffett era. [Source]
- — Meta announced that messenger.com will shut down in April 2026, with users redirected to Facebook. The company already discontinued Messenger's desktop app. The consolidation reflects Meta's move away from maintaining standalone messaging platforms outside the main Facebook ecosystem. [Source]
What to Watch Today
Iran Decision Window (Ongoing – Critical): Trump has not yet authorized strikes, but U.S. forces are actively maneuvering. Watch for any indication from the White House on whether the diplomatic track is being given more time or is being set aside. Secretary Rubio is scheduled to brief Israeli PM Netanyahu around February 28 – if that meeting gets moved up, it likely signals the diplomatic window is closing. Iran was promised two weeks to submit a written proposal on nuclear principles. Whether that timeline is respected or overridden by military action is the story of the next 72 hours.
Congress Watch: No formal congressional notification on Iran military planning has been reported. Worth watching whether any lawmakers – on either side – demand White House consultation under the War Powers Act before any action is taken, or whether Congress sits on the sideline again.
Gaza / Ceasefire: Israel has continued strikes despite the October 2025 ceasefire declaration – 603 Palestinians have been killed since that ceasefire was announced. With the Lancet study now establishing the death toll as historically undercounted, watch whether any U.S. officials respond to those findings.
Ukraine 4th Anniversary: This Saturday marks four years since Russia’s 2022 invasion. Zelensky and European leaders will likely mark the occasion publicly. Watch for what messaging the Trump administration chooses – or avoids – on that date.
Economy: No major U.S. economic data releases scheduled today, but markets will be watching the Iran buildup closely for any energy price impacts.
By The Numbers
The number of violent deaths in Gaza from October 7, 2023 through early January 2025, according to a newly published peer-reviewed Lancet Global Health study based on population-representative household surveys - 35 percent higher than official Ministry of Health figures for the same period. The study also found another 16,300 people died from indirect causes related to the conflict.
The number of F-35, F-22, and F-16 fighter jets the U.S. deployed to the Middle East in a single 24-hour period from February 17-18, according to Axios. Two carrier strike groups are now in or headed to the region. Officials say all required forces will be in position by mid-March at the latest.
The value of Berkshire Hathaway's new stake in The New York Times Company at the end of 2025, acquired during Warren Buffett's final quarter as CEO. The position represents roughly 3 percent of the Times and sent shares to an all-time high. For the journalism industry, it is the clearest possible market signal that quality independent news is a viable long-term investment.
The odds one Trump adviser gave Axios of U.S. military action against Iran "in the coming weeks." Trump has not made a final decision, but the buildup, the rhetoric, and the tight diplomatic timeline all point in one direction.
The share of Gaza's pre-war population of 2.2 million people estimated to have been violently killed by early January 2025, per the Lancet study. That figure does not account for deaths in the months since.
Quote of the Day
"The boss is getting fed up. Some people around him warn him against going to war with Iran, but I think there is 90% chance we see kinetic action in the next few weeks."
-- A senior Trump adviser, speaking anonymously to Axios, on the state of White House deliberations over a potential U.S. military strike on Iran, even as nuclear talks continue in Geneva.
https://www.axios.com/2026/02/18/iran-war-trump-military-strikes-nuclear-talks
Bottom Line
This morning's news has a single gravitational center: the United States is on the edge of launching what its own officials describe as a massive, weeks-long war with Iran, and Congress has not been formally involved, the public debate has been almost nonexistent, and the diplomatic track has been given a two-week window that may not be honored. Layered behind that is a Lancet study that just confirmed the Gaza death toll was a third higher than reported while ceasefire violations continue, Geneva talks on Ukraine ended without progress, and the White House is simultaneously planning a portal to help Europeans route around their own governments' internet laws. It is a morning that calls for sober attention. The Iran situation alone has the potential to reshape the next three years of American foreign policy - and it is moving fast, with very little public accountability in place.