The Talks That Could Stop a War Are Happening Right Now
The morning briefing on nuclear diplomacy happening in real time, a federal Medicaid cutoff affecting 1.2 million Americans, a deadly shootout in Cuban waters, and the accountability questions Washington hasn't answered yet.
A third round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks opened this morning at the Omani Embassy in Geneva — and as of this writing, they're already in a pause, with the Omani foreign minister confirming negotiations will resume this afternoon. His early assessment: talks are proceeding in a "constructive spirit" with "unprecedented openness to new and creative ideas." That's the diplomatic gloss. The actual stakes are harder-edged.The U.S. military has assembled what CSIS analysts describe as the largest concentration of American naval power in the Middle East since the 2003 Iraq invasion — two carrier strike groups, more than 150 aircraft shifted to the region since the last round of talks broke down, and 41 percent of all Navy ships currently ready for operations positioned in or around the theater. Military planners have told Trump they're ready to strike. Trump has not indicated which direction he's leaning.
On the Iranian side, Foreign Minister Araghchi arrived in Geneva with a draft proposal he's described as capable of producing a "fast deal." His core position: Iran will commit to never producing a nuclear weapon. His hard line: the missile program is not on the table. Rubio called that position "a big, big problem" from St. Kitts and Nevis on Wednesday.
Analysts are not forecasting a breakthrough today — but they're also not calling imminent strikes. What they are saying is that the window is closing. The Omani foreign ministry's statement this afternoon will be the first unfiltered signal of whether today moved the needle.
Quick Hits
- Iran's supreme leader's adviser said an "immediate agreement" is possible today — but only if talks are strictly confined to nuclear weapons production, setting aside enrichment levels, missiles, and regional proxies. [Source]
- Minnesota's Department of Human Services said the federal Medicaid freeze — compounds more than $2 billion in already-withheld annual payments — putting the state's health care infrastructure at risk before any corrective action plan has been submitted or reviewed. [Source]
- Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier — Opened a state-level investigation into the Cuba speedboat shooting, calling the Cuban government "untrustworthy" — though the U.S. federal government has confirmed it still doesn't have an independent account of what happened offshore. [Source]
- The Senate is expected to take up the SAVE Act — requiring citizenship verification for federal elections — once the partial government shutdown resolves, with Majority Leader Thune confirming it goes to the floor. [Source]
What to Watch Today
INTERNATIONAL — Geneva, all day: The Omani foreign ministry will issue a readout after talks conclude. Watch for whether Araghchi tables his written proposal and whether any joint language emerges. A session that ends with no public statement from Oman signals stalemate.
DOMESTIC — Cuba response: The U.S. Coast Guard and DHS are conducting parallel investigations. The first independent American account of what happened at Cayo Falcones determines whether this stays a law enforcement matter or becomes a diplomatic and political escalation with Havana.
ACCOUNTABILITY — Minnesota lawsuit watch: AG Ellison telegraphed a legal challenge Wednesday. When it’s filed, the legal theory — whether this is an unlawful impoundment of appropriated funds — will determine if other targeted states can use the same framework preemptively.
POLITICS — Gonzales clock: The Texas GOP primary is one week out. Watch whether any additional Republican members break from leadership’s “let it play out” posture before the March 3 vote.
By The Numbers
Aircraft carrier strike groups now operating in the Middle East simultaneously, the largest dual-carrier deployment in the region since five carrier groups assembled for the 2003 Iraq invasion.
Share of all U.S. Navy ships currently ready for operations that are now positioned in or around the Middle East, according to CSIS analysis of the current buildup.
Federal Medicaid reimbursements withheld from Minnesota on Wednesday, with CMS warning that figure could reach $1 billion by year's end if the state does not satisfy federal corrective action requirements.
Minnesotans who depend on Medicaid services now at risk from the federal payment freeze, according to the Minnesota Department of Human Services.
People aboard the Florida-registered speedboat when Cuban forces opened fire Wednesday morning. Four were killed, six wounded and detained. The U.S. government says the only account of what happened it currently has is the one Cuba has provided.
Quote of the Day
"Rubio acknowledged that most of what the U.S. knows about what happened is what Cuban authorities are providing both the public and the U.S. government." — Secretary of State Marco Rubio, on the Cuba speedboat shooting, Wednesday. https://www.npr.org/2026/02/25/g-s1-111529/cuba-florida-speedboat
Bottom Line
Everything happening today flows from the same tension: the U.S. government is making consequential decisions — military buildups, Medicaid freezes, foreign policy responses — while the underlying facts are still contested or missing. Geneva will tell us in the next few hours whether diplomacy has a lane. The Cuba incident will tell us whether this administration can separate what it knows from what it's been told. And the Minnesota Medicaid freeze, dressed up as a fraud crackdown, is now headed to federal court — where the question of whether the executive branch can withhold congressionally appropriated funds will get its answer.