The Strait of Hormuz Is Closed. The World's Energy Supply Is Now at Risk.
The morning briefing on the Strait of Hormuz shutting to commercial traffic, a ground war opening in Lebanon, QatarEnergy halting LNG production, the U.S. evacuating diplomats across the region, and a four-week war with no exit strategy Congress authorized.
The economic card that analysts spent four days warning about has been played. Iran’s IRGC declared the Strait of Hormuz closed Monday, and by Tuesday morning the declaration had teeth. Shipping traffic through the strait has effectively gone to zero — not because Iran physically blockaded it, but because no commercial vessel will risk the threat. An IRGC general posted directly to the Guards’ Telegram channel: “We will burn any ship that tries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. We will also attack oil pipelines and will not allow a single drop of oil to leave the region.” Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, and CMA CGM — the world’s largest shipping companies — have all suspended Hormuz transits and are rerouting vessels around Africa’s Cape of Good Hope, adding weeks to delivery times and spiking costs at every level of the supply chain. Brent crude rose 13% to $82 per barrel in Tuesday trading, its highest level in a year. IRGC General Jabbari warned oil would hit $200 per barrel “in the coming days.”
The direct energy hit came overnight when Iran struck Ras Laffan — Qatar’s massive LNG export complex and the world’s largest. QatarEnergy confirmed it shut down LNG production following the strikes. Ras Laffan supplies approximately 20% of global LNG. European natural gas prices are now spiking on top of already-elevated oil markets. The Trump administration confirmed it has no plans to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve.
CENTCOM insists the strait is “open,” but ship-tracking data tells a different story: traffic is near zero, P&I insurance coverage has been cancelled for the waterway effective March 5, and the strait has been declared a high-risk zone entitling crew members to extra pay and right of refusal. Technically open. Functionally closed.
Quick Hits
- OPEC+ Pledges Output Increase to Counter Hormuz Disruption — OPEC+ announced it will increase output by 206,000 barrels per day to help offset supply disruptions from the Hormuz closure. Analysts say it won't be enough if the closure extends beyond days. [Source]
- Trump Claims "Virtually Unlimited" Munitions — After Reports of Running Low — Trump posted Tuesday that the U.S. has a "virtually unlimited supply" of munitions and that stockpiles "at the medium and upper medium grade have never been higher." The statement came directly after CNN reported Monday that Tomahawk and SM-3 interceptor stocks were running low. The UAE and Qatar separately denied reports their Patriot interceptor inventories were depleted. [Source]
- Purim Celebrated in Bomb Shelters Across Israel — Israeli Jews observed the Purim holiday Tuesday in bomb shelters and underground parking garages as air raid sirens continued across the country. Ben Gurion Airport remains closed for a fourth consecutive day. [Source]
- Japan Demands Iran Reopen Hormuz — Japan's Foreign Minister personally told Iran's envoy that the strait must reopen, underscoring how quickly the economic consequences of this war are landing on countries far outside the region. Japan depends on Gulf oil for roughly 90% of its energy imports. [Source]
What to Watch For
Hormuz shipping data — Real-time vessel tracking will show whether Iran is actively attacking ships attempting transit or relying on the threat alone. Either way, the insurance cancellation effective March 5 makes it a moot point commercially.
Senate war briefing — Rubio, Hegseth, Ratcliffe, and Caine brief the Senate this afternoon. Watch whether the munitions supply question gets asked on the record.
Lebanon ground operation scope — Israel says no ground invasion “imminently,” but troops are already across the border. The line between a “forward defence posture” and a ground invasion is narrowing.
Iran’s Assembly of Experts — Any reporting on candidate names or a timeline for the succession process reshapes the entire diplomatic picture.
House war powers vote — Could come as early as today. The vote count and any Republican defections are the number to watch.
By The Numbers
Iranians killed since Saturday's strikes began, per the Iranian Red Crescent Society, including Khamenei, senior officials, and at least 168 schoolchildren.
Price per barrel Brent crude reached Tuesday morning, a 13% spike and one-year high, with IRGC officers warning oil could hit $200 if the Hormuz closure holds.
Tankers stranded outside the Strait of Hormuz, with Maersk, Hapag-Lloyd, MSC, and CMA CGM all suspending transits and rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope.
Share of global oil consumed daily that normally flows through the Strait of Hormuz, now effectively shut to commercial traffic.
U.S. service members killed in action, with 18 more seriously wounded as of Tuesday morning, and the Pentagon warning additional losses should be expected.
Quote of the Day
IRGC General Sardar Jabbari, posted to the Guards' Telegram channel Monday: "We will burn any ship that tries to pass through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil price will reach $200 in the coming days."
https://www.euronews.com/2026/03/03/trump-says-iran-war-could-last-four-to-five-weeks-but-could-go-far-longer
Bottom Line
Four days in, the war Trump said would take four weeks has already closed the world's most critical energy chokepoint, opened a ground war in Lebanon, put U.S. diplomats under drone attack in Riyadh, and left the world's largest LNG complex offline. The War Powers notification Congress received describes a much smaller war than the one being fought. The accountability questions emerging from that gap will outlast the conflict itself — but someone has to be asking them now, while the documents are fresh and the decisions are still being made.