State of the Union Night: Trump Addresses Congress Under the Weight of Four Crises at Once
The morning briefing on the State of the Union, a looming Iran decision window, tariff legal battles, and growing oversight challenges across Washington.
Tonight at 9 p.m. ET, President Trump delivers the first State of the Union address of his second term before a joint session of Congress. The theme, per White House officials: "America at 250: Strong, Prosperous and Respected." The reality landing on the doorstep of that speech: a Supreme Court that just struck down his entire tariff architecture four days ago, a self-imposed 10-day Iran decision window that is now open, cartel violence still burning across Mexico, Cuba in financial and humanitarian freefall, and a government that has been partially shut down over DHS funding for two weeks.
At 12:01 a.m. this morning, new 10% global tariffs took effect under an untested legal authority β Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974 β hours after the Supreme Court invalidated his original tariff regime. Trump has simultaneously threatened to raise those to 15%, the statutory cap, with Section 122 only allowing tariffs for 150 days before Congress must vote to extend them. Legal experts are already flagging the new tariffs as likely vulnerable to fresh court challenges.
More than a dozen Democratic lawmakers are boycotting the speech entirely, staging a counterprogram at the National Mall. The U.S. women's Olympic gold medal hockey team β invited by Trump β declined, citing scheduling. Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger delivers the Democratic response. A new CNN/SSRS poll shows 6 in 10 Americans disapprove of how Trump is handling inflation, tariffs, relations with other countries, immigration, and the economy. Multiple Jeffrey Epstein survivors are expected to attend as guests of members of Congress.
The speech is Trump's biggest single opportunity to shape the midterm narrative before November. He walks into it with his two signature second-term priorities β mass deportation and tariff-driven trade policy β under simultaneous legal assault from the Supreme Court he built.
Quick Hits
- DHS Partial Shutdown Enters Third Week. β The government has been in partial shutdown for two weeks over congressional deadlock on DHS funding, as Democrats refuse to fund an agency documented to have illegally detained people more than 4,400 times. No resolution in sight heading into SOTU. [Source]
- Epstein Survivors Attending State of the Union Tonight. β Multiple survivors of Jeffrey Epstein's abuse network are attending the SOTU as guests of members of Congress β a deliberately visible signal to the administration as it fields congressional pressure over the files and the arrest of former Prince Andrew last week. [Source]
- U.S. Women's Olympic Hockey Team Declined Trump's SOTU Invite. β The gold medal-winning team β which captured the U.S.'s first women's hockey gold in decades β reportedly cited "scheduling" for declining Trump's invitation to attend the address. The men's team, which won gold Sunday, accepted. [Source]
- Sudan Drone Strikes Kill 90 People at Two Crowded Markets. β The Rapid Support Forces carried out drone strikes on two markets in North Kordofan, Sudan, killing at least 90 people and injuring dozens more. The attack received minimal Western press coverage as it fell on the same news cycle as the SOTU, cartel violence, and the tariff ruling. [Source]
What to Watch Today
State of the Union β 9 p.m. ET Tonight: The most important moments to track are not the applause lines β they are what Trump says about Iran (White House press secretary implied it would feature), what he says about tariffs and the Supreme Court, and whether he addresses the government shutdown directly. Virginia Gov. Spanberger’s response at roughly 10:30 p.m. sets the Democratic counter-frame going into midterm season.
Iran Geneva Talks β Thursday: The next scheduled round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks is set for Thursday in Geneva. Whether the talks happen on schedule, are postponed, or are preempted by a military decision is the single most consequential watch item of the week.
Tariff Legal Challenges: Section 122 has never been used as a tariff tool before. Legal challenges are expected to move quickly. Watch for any federal court filing or TRO request in the next 48 hours β legal shops were already filing challenges when the tariffs went live at midnight.
ICE Domestic Terrorist Lawsuit: Protect Democracy has asked for an emergency temporary restraining order in the Maine case. That ruling could come within days and would be the first judicial test of ICE’s surveillance of First Amendment activity.
By The Numbers
The number of days Trump's new Section 122 tariffs can legally remain in effect before Congress must vote to extend them. That clock started today. This is the hard ceiling of his current statutory authority.
Estimated amount the U.S. government may owe in refunds to companies that paid IEEPA tariffs now ruled unconstitutional by the Supreme Court. Trump has indicated the administration does not plan to honor those refunds.
The number of U.S. citizens now documented to have been killed by federal immigration agents since Trump's second term began: Renee Good, Alex Pretti (both Minneapolis, January 2026), and Ruben Ray Martinez (South Padre Island, Texas, March 2025 β concealed for nearly a year).
The share of Americans who, per a new CNN/SSRS poll released ahead of the SOTU, disapprove of Trump's handling of inflation, tariffs, foreign relations, immigration, and the economy simultaneously.
The self-imposed days Trump gave himself to decide on Iran. That window opened this weekend and runs through approximately March 2. Geneva talks are Thursday. The decision is this week.
Quote of the Day
"Plaintiffs must either abandon their constitutional rights or accept being cataloged and branded as 'domestic terrorists.' That is a choice the Constitution does not require Plaintiffs, or anyone, to make."
β From the federal class action complaint filed Monday in U.S. District Court in Maine against DHS, ICE, CBP, and related agencies, on behalf of Maine residents who were surveilled, threatened, and labeled domestic terrorists for lawfully filming immigration enforcement operations in their communities.
https://protectdemocracy.org/work/defending-maine-communities-from-federal-surveillance-and-intimidation/
Bottom Line
Tonight Trump stands before Congress to make the case that everything is going according to plan. The morning briefing tells a different story: his tariff regime was just ruled unconstitutional, its replacement is already legally shaky, three U.S. citizens are now documented dead at the hands of federal immigration agents, ICE is running facial recognition on people filming public operations and threatening to call them domestic terrorists, a possible war with Iran may be decided in the next 10 days without a congressional vote, and Mexico is still on fire. The State of the Union is a speech about the state of the union. Tonight's will be worth measuring against the record this brief documents week by week. TSM will.