Iran War Spreads to High Seas as Congress Surrenders War Powers Twice in One Day
The evening briefing on a Strait of Hormuz now effectively closed to global shipping, two congressional war powers votes that changed nothing, and a Bondi subpoena that may go nowhere.
DEVELOPING STORY UPDATE: Strait of Hormuz ā The Closure That’s Costing the World
What began this morning as a developing maritime crisis ended the day looking more like a sustained blockade. The Strait of Hormuz ā through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s daily oil supply moves ā recorded only five vessel crossings on March 4, and by Thursday afternoon, marine war risk insurers had pulled coverage entirely for the region, removing any practical incentive for ship operators to attempt the passage.
A Malta-flagged container ship, the Safeen Prestige, was struck and abandoned by its crew in the strait, becoming the first container ship casualty of Operation Epic Fury. Some 150 vessels remain stranded on either side of the chokepoint. Oil prices continued their upward climb, with analysts from Barclays and Goldman Sachs warning that a closure lasting more than a month could push crude into triple digits and European natural gas toward the crisis levels last seen in 2022. Defense Secretary Hegseth, speaking from CENTCOM headquarters in Tampa, framed Iran’s retaliatory strikes as a strategic gift ā pulling Gulf states “into the American orbit.” Whether that framing holds up against the economic reality now hitting every nation dependent on Gulf energy is a question no one in the administration answered today.
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What to Watch For
Bondi response window ā The Oversight Committee’s subpoena sets the clock running. Watch whether DOJ acknowledges it, contests it, or simply ignores it. The Epstein file investigation has enough bipartisan momentum that stonewalling carries political risk, but enforcement mechanisms remain weak.
Hormuz shipping ā Day six of the effective closure. At what point do Gulf states ā whose own economies depend on exports through the strait ā move from hosting U.S. forces to actively pressuring for a diplomatic off-ramp? Watch Qatar and UAE signals.
Bottom Line
Congress voted twice today not to vote on the Iran war. The constitutional question of who has the authority to send Americans into combat didn't get resolved ā it got deferred, again, until something forces the issue. Based on today's trajectory, that something will probably be a body count, a tanker on fire, or a price at the pump.
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