IRAN'S NEW SUPREME LEADER HAS NOT BEEN SEEN IN 72 HOURS — AND THE IRGC MAY BE RUNNING THE WAR WITHOUT HIM
The accountability questions emerging from Iran's invisible supreme leader, a war with no exit ramp and no congressional authorization, and a UNICEF warning that more than 1,100 children have been killed or wounded in 13 days.
Iran’s supreme leader Mojtaba Khamenei was wounded in the same February 28 airstrike that killed his father, his mother, his wife, and at least four other family members — and as of this morning, Day 13 of the war, he has not made a single public statement, appeared in any video, or been photographed since being named Iran’s most powerful official three days ago. Iran’s ambassador to Cyprus told The Guardian that Khamenei sustained injuries to his legs and arms and believes he is hospitalized.
CNN confirmed a fractured foot, bruising around the left eye, and facial lacerations. Iranian state media, which has referred to him using the term janbaz — meaning wounded war veteran — has been filling airtime with archival footage and AI-generated images of the new leader while official channels stay silent about his whereabouts. The critical question this silence raises is not whether Khamenei is alive. Multiple Iranian officials say he is. The question is who is actually directing a war being fought across nine countries — because if Mojtaba Khamenei cannot communicate, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, which has already defied President Pezeshkian’s direct order to stop attacking Gulf neighbors, may be operating without any civilian authority above it.
A prediction market on Polymarket currently gives only a 23% chance Khamenei appears publicly before March 16. Iran is now in its tenth day of a near-total internet blackout, with connectivity at roughly one percent of normal levels.
Quick Hits
- War Cost Hits $3.7 Billion in First 100 Hours — With No Budget — The Center for Strategic and International Studies estimates Operation Epic Fury cost the U.S. approximately $3.7 billion in its first 100 hours alone — almost entirely unbudgeted. Analysts note the intercept math is brutal: each Iranian Shahed drone costs $50,000 to produce; each PATRIOT interceptor costs $4 million. [Source]
- 60% of Americans Think the War Will Be Prolonged — A new Reuters/Ipsos poll finds approximately 60% of Americans believe the Iran war will be a prolonged conflict, undercutting the Trump administration's messaging that the operation is nearly complete. [Source]
- Iran Warns Oil Could Hit $200 a Barrel — Iranian officials warned global markets Thursday to prepare for oil prices potentially reaching $200 a barrel if the Hormuz situation deteriorates further. Brent crude briefly topped $100 a barrel again this morning before easing slightly. The IEA's 32 member countries have unanimously agreed to release emergency petroleum reserves at Trump's request. [Source]
- Joe Rogan Breaks With Trump on Iran War — During a podcast episode this week, Rogan told conservative author Michael Shellenberger that the war "seems so insane based on what he ran on," adding that many of Trump's supporters "feel betrayed" because Trump campaigned on no new wars. [Source]
What to Watch For
Mojtaba Khamenei public appearance: Day 13 with no statement, no video, no photograph of Iran’s new supreme leader. Watch whether Iranian state media is forced to address his condition directly — and whether any credible sighting emerges. The IRGC’s continued defiance of Pezeshkian’s orders to halt Gulf strikes is the tell that command authority is fractured.
Congressional pressure on Minab: The Minab targeting failure investigation remains open with no public timeline for findings. Watch for any Republican crossover demand for a classified briefing — yesterday a GOP senator called it “a terrible, terrible mistake,” and the question of who approved decade-old DIA targeting data has not been answered.
Iran ceasefire back-channel: China, Russia, and France are all in contact with Tehran. Watch whether Pezeshkian’s three public conditions — rights, reparations, guarantees — are the opening of a negotiation or a door-closing maneuver ahead of a longer war.
Oil markets: Brent crude is dancing around $100 again this morning after briefly topping it. The IEA reserve release and Iranian threats of $200 oil are on a collision course. Watch the 10 AM ET futures reading.
By The Numbers
Civilians confirmed killed in Iran as of Day 13, according to Iran's UN representative. The figure does not include the 570 killed in Lebanon or 13 in Israel.
Children killed or injured across the conflict zone in 13 days, according to UNICEF, which called the situation "catastrophic."
Hours since Mojtaba Khamenei was named Iran's supreme leader with no public statement, video, or verified photograph released.
Estimated U.S. cost of Operation Epic Fury in the first 100 hours alone, almost entirely unbudgeted, according to CSIS.
Ships struck or fired upon in the Strait of Hormuz in the past 48 hours, bringing the war's total shipping incidents to at least 20.
Quote of the Day
"Plan A for a clean rapid military victory failed, Mr. President. Your Plan B will be an even bigger failure." — Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, posting on social media Thursday, challenging the Trump administration's war strategy. https://www.iranintl.com/en/202603063217
Bottom Line
Thirteen days in, the central question of this war has shifted. It is no longer whether the U.S. and Israel can degrade Iran's military capacity — they clearly can and are. The question is what comes next. Iran's regime did not collapse when its supreme leader was killed. A new one was named, possibly wounded and invisible, while the IRGC continues to fire on Gulf neighbors in defiance of Iran's own president.
The Minab school investigation confirmed the U.S. killed more than 165 children with decade-old targeting data, and no one has answered who approved it. Congress has held no public hearings. The war has no authorization, no budget, no stated exit strategy, and no answer to the question a Democratic senator asked after a classified briefing last week: what happens when you stop bombing and they restart production?