Iran Installs Hardline Successor — and the War Gets Harder
The morning briefing on Day 10 of Operation Epic Fury — Iran's defiant leadership choice, a seventh American killed, oil prices at a four-year high, and U.S. diplomats ordered out of Saudi Arabia.
Iran’s Assembly of Experts named Mojtaba Khamenei, the 56-year-old hard-line son of the slain Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, as the Islamic Republic’s third supreme leader on Monday — a move that sent oil prices past $100 per barrel, triggered a new wave of Israeli strikes, and signaled to Washington that Tehran has no intention of surrendering.
The selection arrived on Day 10 of Operation Epic Fury, as smoke from U.S.-Israeli airstrikes still hung over Tehran. The assembly convened even as strikes continued in the city. Top Iranian security official Ali Larijani called the move courageous and said the younger Khamenei had been “trained by his father” and could “handle this situation.”
The appointment was a direct rebuke of Trump, who had previously called Mojtaba an “unacceptable” choice and claimed Iran’s next leader would need his approval. On Sunday, Trump had told ABC that the new leader would “not last long” without it. Within hours of the announcement, Iran launched fresh missile and drone attacks on oil infrastructure across the Gulf. Iran’s foreign minister ruled out any ceasefire, telling NBC’s Meet the Press that his country must “continue fighting for the sake of our people.”
Israel responded by announcing “a wide-scale wave of strikes” against regime infrastructure in Tehran, Isfahan, and southern Iran. Arab officials told NBC that Mojtaba Khamenei now has “an X on his back” — marked, like his father, for assassination.
The younger Khamenei, who kept a deliberately low profile for years, now controls Iran’s armed forces and any decisions about its nuclear program. He is considered more hardline than his father, and the IRGC and Hezbollah have already pledged full support. One Middle East analyst told CNN: it is “an absolute act of defiance.”
Quick Hits
- IRAN VOWS TO KEEP FIGHTING — Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told NBC's Meet the Press that Iran "must continue fighting for the sake of our people" and ruled out any ceasefire while military operations continue. He declined to confirm or deny that Russia is providing intelligence support to Iran. [Source]
- U.S. EMBASSY IN OSLO BOMBED — An improvised explosive device detonated outside the U.S. Embassy in Oslo over the weekend, damaging an entrance and sending smoke into the street. No injuries reported. Norwegian police are searching for a suspect caught on surveillance footage. Investigators say it may be linked to the war. [Source]
- IRAN WOMEN'S FOOTBALL TEAM STRANDED IN AUSTRALIA — Iran's women's national soccer team, in Australia for the AFC Women's Asian Cup, is effectively stranded after the country's exit from the tournament. Iranian state media labeled the players "wartime traitors" for standing silent during the national anthem. Exiled former Crown Prince Reza Pahlavi has asked Canberra to protect the players. Supporters surrounded the team's bus chanting "save our girls." [Source]
- TRUMP WEIGHING SPECIAL FORCES TO SEIZE IRAN'S URANIUM — Bloomberg reported Monday that Trump is weighing deployment of special forces on the ground to locate and seize Iran's stockpile of near-bomb-grade highly enriched uranium. Officials are working to verify the material's current location. The move, if authorized, would represent a significant ground escalation in a war that Congress has never voted to authorize. [Source]
What to Watch For
New Iranian Supreme Leader’s First Orders: Mojtaba Khamenei now controls the IRGC, Iran’s military, and nuclear program decisions. Watch for his first public address and any signals about whether he will pursue or abandon diplomacy — or accelerate nuclear activity.
Israel’s Response to the New Leader: IDF has already promised more strikes. Netanyahu said to watch for “many surprises” in the next phase. Israel previously threatened to target any Khamenei successor. Whether that threat is acted upon today determines where the war goes next.
Oil Markets: Brent briefly touched $120 this morning before pulling back. Hormuz remains closed. Watch whether any Gulf state begins emergency reserve releases or whether the cascade of production shutdowns from Kuwait and Iraq deepens. Every dollar above $100 is political risk for Trump at home.
U.S. Death Toll Reconciliation: CENTCOM has confirmed 7 killed; Al Jazeera has reported 8. An unresolved discrepancy. The Pentagon is expected to release the name of the seventh soldier today following next-of-kin notification.
School Strike Accountability: Senate Democrats have spoken. The question now is whether any Republican joins the call for answers on Minab, and whether Congress formally demands the targeting package. Hegseth’s “still investigating” posture has a shelf life.
By The Numbers
Brent crude oil price per barrel as of Monday morning, a four-year high, up approximately 65% since the war began February 28. Briefly touched $120.
Confirmed U.S. service members killed in Operation Epic Fury, all Army soldiers, all killed in attacks in Kuwait and Saudi Arabia on March 1. A possible eighth death is unconfirmed across outlets.
Children confirmed killed in the Minab girls' school strike on Day 1, per the most recent CNN reporting. The number has climbed from the initial 165 figure. No U.S. official has accepted responsibility.
Schools targeted across Iran since the war began, per the Iranian Red Crescent. Alongside 32 medical facilities and more than 10,000 civilian sites reported damaged.
Total deaths across all parties since February 28, with Iran accounting for the vast majority at 1,330+ civilian dead. Lebanon has recorded 394 killed; Israel 15; Gulf states combined in the dozens.
Quote of the Day
"It is an absolute act of defiance. It is a message to the Trump administration, to the Israeli prime minister, that Iran is not backing down; that it does not intend to surrender." — Former Pentagon adviser Jasmine el-Gamal, on the appointment of Mojtaba Khamenei as Iran's new supreme leader. https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/iran-war-us-israel-trump-03-09-26
Bottom Line
On Day 10 of Operation Epic Fury, Iran answered weeks of bombardment with a defiant succession — installing a harder-line leader who controls the IRGC, the nuclear program, and the decision about whether to escalate further. The war the Trump administration said would be short has driven oil past $100, killed seven Americans in an unauthorized conflict, and is now forcing U.S. diplomats out of Saudi Arabia. The accountability questions — on the school strike, on war powers, on Russia's intelligence role — remain unanswered. Congress has not voted. The bombs have not stopped. This is Day 10.