Iran Threatens Total Oil Blockade. Trump Threatens Annihilation. The Strait Is Already Closed.
Trump threatens Iran with "death, fire and fury" over the Strait of Hormuz as Tehran vows to block all regional oil exports and new Tomahawk video intensifies Minab school strike questions.
President Trump posted a Truth Social threat Monday night warning Iran it would be hit “TWENTY TIMES HARDER” than it has been so far if it blocks the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz — adding that “death, fire and fury will reign upon them” and that strikes would target “easily destroyable” locations that could prevent Iran from ever being rebuilt as a nation. Iran’s response was immediate and direct. A senior IRGC official warned that Tehran would not allow “one liter of oil” to leave the Middle East for as long as U.S. and Israeli attacks continue. Top security official Ali Larijani reposted Trump’s threat on X and replied in Farsi: “The Iranian people do not fear your hollow threats.” He then warned Trump himself to “beware, lest you are the ones who are eliminated.”
The exchange matters because the Strait of Hormuz is already effectively closed. Shipping traffic dropped 95% in the first week of March, according to S&P Global Market Intelligence. More than 3,200 ships are sitting idle in the Gulf. Iran achieved the shutdown not with a formal naval blockade but with targeted drone strikes near the waterway that caused marine insurers to withdraw coverage entirely — making passage economically impossible. About 20% of the world’s daily oil supply moves through that strait. Regular gasoline now averages $3.48 per gallon nationally, up from $2.90 a month ago. The standoff over the strait is not hypothetical. It is already happening — and both sides are now threatening to make it dramatically worse.
Quick Hits
- GAS NOW $3.48 NATIONALLY — UP 20% IN 11 DAYS — AAA confirmed the national average for regular gasoline hit $3.48 per gallon Tuesday, up from $2.90 a month ago — a 20% spike directly tied to the Hormuz closure and Gulf energy disruption. Senate Minority Leader Schumer called on Trump to tap the Strategic Petroleum Reserve. The White House called rising prices a "short-term disruption." [Source]
- MACRON: ATTACK ON CYPRUS IS ATTACK ON EUROPE — French President Emmanuel Macron, visiting Cyprus after Iranian-linked drones damaged the runway at Britain's Akrotiri military base, declared: "When Cyprus is attacked, it is Europe that is attacked." France has already authorized U.S. use of French military bases and sent its aircraft carrier toward the Mediterranean. The statement signals that European NATO members are moving closer to active involvement. [Source]
- 32,000 AMERICANS EVACUATED FROM MIDDLE EAST — The State Department confirmed more than 32,000 Americans have left the Middle East since the war began February 28 — up from the 20,000 figure reported last week. Non-emergency U.S. government employees have now been ordered out of Saudi Arabia. The U.S. Embassy in Kuwait was struck and closed indefinitely. [Source]
- NATANZ AND ISFAHAN: SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW DAMAGE — Satellite imagery reviewed by CBS News shows damage to Iran's Natanz nuclear facility, including a strike near a tunnel entrance, and the destroyed Isfahan missile complex. UN nuclear watchdog chief Rafael Grossi confirmed limited impacts at Natanz but said no evidence of damage to nuclear material itself. The location of Iran's highly enriched uranium stockpile — a technical step away from weapons-grade — remains a key open question. [Source]
What to Watch For
Hormuz Escalation or Standoff: Iran has threatened a full oil blockade. Trump has threatened annihilation in response. The strait is already effectively closed. Watch whether either side takes a physical action that moves the standoff from rhetoric to kinetic — any new tanker strike or U.S. naval move in the strait is the day’s biggest potential flashpoint.
Minab Congressional Response: The Tomahawk video is verified and circulating widely. Six Senate Democrats have spoken. Watch whether any Republican breaks today, and whether any committee chair formally requests the targeting package from the Pentagon. That would be the first real institutional accountability move of the war.
Mojtaba Khamenei’s First Public Statement: Iran’s new supreme leader has not spoken publicly since his appointment. His first statement — on war strategy, nuclear posture, or the Hormuz question — will set the tone for how Iran prosecutes the next phase.
Oil Markets and Reserve Decision: European markets stabilized after Trump’s “soon” comments, but the underlying supply disruption hasn’t changed. Watch whether any G7 government formally triggers a strategic petroleum reserve release, and how markets respond to any new Trump statement.
Iran’s Iranian Women’s Soccer Team: Five players are seeking asylum in Australia. Canberra has not confirmed their status. A decision is expected soon — and it will carry significant diplomatic weight given Iran’s labeling of the players as traitors.
By The Numbers
National average price per gallon of regular gasoline as of Tuesday, up from $2.90 one month ago — a 20% increase in 11 days tied directly to the Hormuz closure.
Drop in shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz in the first week of March, per S&P Global Market Intelligence. About 20% of the world's daily oil supply normally transits the waterway.
Hours Iran has been under a near-total internet blackout, per NetBlocks — described as one of the most severe government-imposed shutdowns on record globally.
Americans evacuated from the Middle East since February 28, per the State Department. The number has grown by 60% from the 20,000 figure reported at the end of last week.
Iranian civilians confirmed killed by the Red Crescent since Day 1, with the true count unverifiable due to the ongoing internet blackout. Iran's 65 schools and 32 medical facilities have been reported struck since the war began.
Quote of the Day
"The Iranian people do not fear your hollow threats. Beware, lest you are the ones who are eliminated." — Ali Larijani, Iran's top security official, responding directly to Trump's "death, fire and fury" Truth Social post. https://www.nbcnews.com/world/iran/live-blog/live-updates-iran-war-oil-prices-trump-hormuz-israel-rcna262670
Bottom Line
Eleven days in, the Iran war has produced a direct standoff over the world's most critical oil chokepoint, a verified video connecting a U.S. weapon to the deadliest civilian strike of the conflict, and a president simultaneously telling the public the war is almost over while threatening Iran with total destruction. Congress still hasn't voted. The targeting package for the Minab school strike still hasn't been released. And the Strait of Hormuz — already effectively closed — is now the explicit center of a nuclear-level rhetorical exchange between Washington and Tehran. The facts are doing the work.