DEVELOPING: IRAN NEGOTIATORS TOUCH DOWN IN GENEVA AS DEADLINE TIGHTENS

How today played out — Iran's delegation arrives in Switzerland, evacuations accelerate across the Middle East, a new U.S. demand surfaces, and the GOP fractures over a congressman's affair with a staffer who died by suicide.

True Signal Media | The Daily Brief tracks the institutions, decisions, and accountability stories shaping the day ahead.

Wednesday, February 25, 2026 Maya Sutton | Daily Brief Editor Standard International

The third round of U.S.-Iran nuclear talks opens Thursday morning in Geneva — and by tonight, both delegations are on the ground. Iran's Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi led his team out of Tehran this evening. U.S. envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are expected across the table.
What changed since this morning: Axios is reporting a significant new U.S. condition that Iran has not publicly accepted. Witkoff told a gathering of AIPAC donors that any deal must be permanent — no sunset provisions, no expiration dates. The 2015 Obama-era deal had nuclear limits that phased out over 8 to 25 years. Witkoff's position is that Iran must "behave for the rest of their lives." Araghchi told CBS over the weekend that Iran could sign a deal keeping its program "peaceful forever" — so there may be more convergence here than the military posturing suggests. But the gap between public statements and actual negotiating text remains unverified.
The pressure signals today were serious. The U.S. issued a fresh wave of sanctions targeting Iran's shadow fleet oil tankers — timed deliberately for the eve of talks. Vice President Vance went on Fox and told Iran to take military threats "seriously." Multiple countries accelerated evacuations: Australia ordered diplomatic dependents out of Israel and Lebanon, Serbia told nationals in Iran to leave immediately, and the State Department has already pulled non-emergency personnel from Beirut.
The message from U.S. officials tonight is that tomorrow's session is likely Iran's last diplomatic window before Trump makes a military decision. The message from Araghchi is that a deal is "within reach." Those two things may both be true — or one of them may not be.

Top Stories

GOP Fractures Over Gonzales Affair as Primary Looms Rep.

Tony Gonzales (R-TX) flatly refused to resign Tuesday despite growing pressure from within his own party following the release of explicit text messages between him and former staffer Regina Santos-Aviles, who died in September 2025 after setting herself on fire outside her Uvalde home. Texts obtained by CBS News show Gonzales pressing Santos-Aviles for explicit photos after midnight, with her responding "this is too far, Tony." Boebert, Mace, Massie, and Burchett have called for his resignation. Johnson has so far declined to pull Trump's endorsement. The primary is March 3 — one week away — and a resignation would drop the Republican House majority to 217-214 until a special election could be held.

Sources: Texas Tribune • CBS News

SOTU Fact-Check Fallout Continues

Post-speech fact-checks from PBS, CNN, and NBC documented multiple false claims in Trump's record-length address — on Medicaid, crime in Washington, Social Security, and foreign investment. The administration has not responded to specific fact-check inquiries. Separately, Rubio and CIA Director Ratcliffe briefed the Gang of Eight on Iran the day of the speech, with Senate Minority Leader Schumer emerging to say "this is serious, and the administration has to make its case to the American people" — a signal that the intelligence picture may be more urgent than the diplomatic language suggests.

Sources: CBS News • PBS

Tariff Refund Pipeline Grows

FedEx's refund suit against the federal government is now one of dozens of pending claims at the U.S. Court of International Trade, with the administration warning the process could take years. The Tax Foundation estimates more than $160 billion in IEEPA tariffs were collected illegally. Trump's replacement 10% Section 122 tariff is now active, running on a 150-day clock that expires mid-July — after which Congress must vote to extend or the tariffs lapse. No Republican leadership statement on that vote has been issued.

Sources: CNBC

What to Watch Today

Geneva, all day. The Witkoff-Araghchi session is the only story that matters Thursday. Watch for: whether Iran tables its written proposal, whether the U.S. confirms or denies the no-sunset-provision demand publicly, and whether Trump says anything before or after the session. Any hint of a breakdown in the room will move markets and potentially trigger a military posture change within days.

March 3 — Texas GOP Primary. Gonzales versus Herrera. If Gonzales loses, Republicans hold the seat but the Speaker loses a vote. If Gonzales wins while under active investigation by the Office of Congressional Conduct, Johnson has a different problem. Either way, next Tuesday becomes a referendum on whether the base rewards or punishes the behavior.

Bottom Line

Two things are true tonight: the Iran talks tomorrow represent a genuine opportunity for a diplomatic breakthrough, and the U.S. has positioned enough military hardware in the region to execute strikes within days if those talks collapse. Geneva has rarely mattered this much. TSM will be watching.

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