Iran War: U.S. Gas Prices Hit 3-Year High as Israel Halts South Pars Strikes
The morning briefing on the Iran war entering its fourth week, a global energy crisis accelerating, and a mounting intelligence accountability problem inside the Trump administration.
President Trump called for a halt to Israeli strikes on Iranian energy sites Friday even as U.S. gas prices hit their highest level in more than three years, exposing the administration’s failure to plan for the economic fallout of a war it chose to start.
Oil climbed above $115 a barrel after Israel struck Iran’s South Pars gas field — the world’s largest — triggering Iranian retaliation against Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG facility, the world’s biggest liquefaction complex. QatarEnergy has halted all gas production, disrupting roughly 20 percent of global LNG supply. The Pentagon separately requested $200 billion in emergency wartime funding, with Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth telling reporters the number “could move” before adding, “It takes money to kill bad guys.” The White House had not refilled the Strategic Petroleum Reserve before launching the war.
After three weeks, the numbers are stark: more than 2,200 killed across the region, 18,000 Iranian civilians injured, 7,800 targets struck by U.S. and Israeli forces, and 20,000 seafarers trapped in the Gulf as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz grinds toward a halt. Goldman Sachs warned oil could stay above $100 a barrel through 2027.
The accountability question no one in the administration is answering: did Trump’s team plan for any of this? Senate Intelligence Committee members obtained a now-documented discrepancy between DNI Tulsi Gabbard’s written and oral testimony on whether Iran posed an imminent nuclear threat before the war began. Classified briefings reveal the administration had “no plan” to address Hormuz closure — a week into a war they launched.
Quick Hits
- F-35 EMERGENCY LANDING AFTER IRANIAN FIRE — A U.S. F-35 fighter jet made an emergency landing at a Middle East air base after being struck by what sources describe as Iranian fire. The pilot is in stable condition. It is the first confirmed U.S. aircraft hit in the war. [Source]
- TRUMP INVOKES PEARL HARBOR IN MEETING WITH JAPANESE PM — At a White House summit with Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi, Trump defended not informing allies before the Iran strikes, citing the element of surprise and invoking the 1941 Pearl Harbor attack. Takaichi — whose country imports 90 percent of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz — said Japan would work to "calm" global energy markets and that Iranian nuclear weapons "must never be allowed." [Source]
- LEBANON: ONE-FIFTH OF POPULATION DISPLACED — A UN Refugee Agency official reported that roughly one-fifth of Lebanon's population has been uprooted from their homes in just two weeks due to the conflict between Israel and Hezbollah. Lebanon's death toll has now surpassed 1,000. [Source]
- TREASURY EYES UNSANCTIONING IRANIAN CRUDE — Secretary Scott Bessent said Washington is considering "unsanctioning" Iranian crude oil already in transit as a potential measure to ease energy prices. The White House separately ruled out banning crude and gas exports as a relief option. [Source]
What to Watch For
Politics: Watch for any Senate follow-up on Gabbard’s omitted testimony — Sen. Warner has signaled he intends to pursue the intelligence discrepancy. The Markwayne Mullin DHS confirmation vote moves to the full Senate.
Energy: Oil markets open Friday with Brent just above $115. Watch whether Netanyahu’s pledge to halt South Pars strikes holds and how markets respond. Goldman Sachs’s $100+ oil forecast through 2027 is now the working assumption.
Diplomacy: French President Macron has called for UN Security Council consultations on a Hormuz navigation framework. The IMO has begun negotiating a humanitarian corridor for 20,000 stranded seafarers. Neither has a timeline.
Military: Hegseth said today would bring “the largest strike package yet.” Watch for confirmation of additional U.S. targets inside Iran and any further Caspian Sea escalation given Russia’s proximity.
By The Numbers
Brent crude oil price per barrel Friday morning, up roughly 65 percent since the war began February 28. Goldman Sachs projects oil stays above $100 through 2027 even if fighting stops soon.
Additional wartime funding the Pentagon is requesting from Congress, against an estimated $12 billion already spent in three weeks. The White House has not yet submitted the request.
Seafarers trapped in the Gulf as tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has ground toward a halt. The UN's maritime organization says it will begin negotiations to establish a humanitarian corridor, with no timeline given.
Share of global LNG capacity knocked offline by the Iranian strike on Qatar's Ras Laffan facility, with losses estimated near $20 billion per year and a 9 percent hit to Qatar's annual GDP. Force majeure is expected on contracts to Belgium, Italy, South Korea, and China.
Quote of the Day
"Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby." — Joe Kent, former Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, resignation letter posted March 18, 2026.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/03/19/iran-war-tulsi-gabbard-intelligence-senate-testimony/
Bottom Line
The Iran war is entering its fourth week with no exit ramp in sight, a global energy shock that economists are calling the worst since the 1970s, and a documented intelligence credibility problem inside the administration. The Gabbard testimony gap is not a process story — it is a receipts story. The intelligence community's own written assessment contradicts the primary justification given for the war. That document now exists in the Senate record. The question is whether any institution in Washington will treat it as one.
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