“Beirut Celebrates Under Fire: Ceasefire Begins With Fireworks and Tracer Rounds”
The morning briefing on a fragile Lebanon ceasefire igniting Beirut's skyline with fireworks, Trump declaring a U.S.-Iran deal is "very close," and 40 nations gathering without America to decide what happens next in the Strait of Hormuz.
Iran War Day 48: a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire took effect Thursday night, clearing the final stated obstacle to a second U.S.-Iran negotiating round that Trump says will yield “amazing” results — but Hormuz stays closed, the ceasefire expires in four days, and the War Powers clock is at 11.
Before midnight in Beirut, the guns went quiet. Tracer rounds and fireworks lit the sky. A 10-day ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon — brokered by Vice President JD Vance over days of pressure on the Israeli government — took effect Thursday at 5 p.m. ET. Crowds flooded streets across Lebanon. Lebanese Army commander Joseph Aoun called it an “essential step.” Hezbollah said its fighters’ hands remain “on the trigger.” Iran had made a Lebanon ceasefire a non-negotiable precondition for any second round of U.S.-Iran talks. Now that condition is met.
Trump moved fast to claim it. “May have been a historic day for Lebanon,” he posted on Truth Social. He told reporters Thursday that a U.S.-Iran peace deal is now “very close,” that Tehran has “totally agreed” to give up nuclear enrichment, and that he might personally fly to Pakistan to sign it. “They’ve agreed to give us back the nuclear dust,” Trump said, referring to Iran’s enriched uranium stockpile — though Iran’s Foreign Ministry gave no public confirmation and said significant gaps remain.
The ceasefire’s durability is already in question. The Lebanese Army accused Israel of “a number of acts of aggression” within hours of the truce taking effect, including shelling of southern villages. Israel vowed it would not withdraw troops from southern Lebanon and said it would respond to “imminent threats.” Hezbollah called Israel’s forces an occupying presence with no right to remain.
Four days. That’s what’s left on the April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire before it expires April 21. No second round of talks has been formally scheduled. The War Powers Act deadline — Day 60 of Operation Epic Fury — arrives April 28. Congress has not voted to authorize the war. Republican Sen. Don Bacon said it plainly: “By law, we got to either approve continued operations or stop.”
Quick Hits
- Impeachment Articles Filed Against Hegseth — House Democrats moved Thursday to impeach Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth over the conduct of the Iran war and his public statements that combat operations could resume. The articles have no immediate path to passage with Republicans controlling the chamber, but they set a formal accountability [Source]
- Oil Companies Made $30 Million Per Hour During Iran War — A Guardian analysis found that top oil and gas companies collected roughly $30 million per hour in windfall profits since Operation Epic Fury began February 28. The figure has drawn new calls for a windfall profits tax, which has no Republican support in Congress. [Source]
- S&P 500 Closes at Record High for Second Straight Day — U.S. markets extended their record-setting rally Thursday on renewed deal optimism, capping a two-week recovery that erased all Iran war losses. The Nasdaq also hit a fresh all-time high. Oil held near $95 per barrel — down from $99 earlier this week — as traders bet the conflict ends soon. [Source]
What to Watch For
France-UK Hormuz Summit (Today): Macron and Starmer host a follow-up working session with allied nations on maritime security strategy for the Strait of Hormuz. Watch whether a formal multinational escort mission gets authorized — and watch whether the U.S. participates.
Second Round of U.S.-Iran Talks: No date confirmed, but Trump said it could happen “this weekend.” Watch for any announcement from Pakistan’s Foreign Ministry or the White House today. If talks don’t materialize before the April 21 ceasefire expiration, the situation escalates immediately.
House War Powers Vote: The House is expected to vote on a war powers resolution similar to the one the Senate rejected Wednesday. It has little chance of passage, but the vote count matters — watch whether any Republicans break ranks.
War Powers Clock: Day 48. April 28 = Day 60. Twelve days until Congress must act or the administration faces a legal cliff it has shown no intention of acknowledging.
Hezbollah’s Response: The Lebanon ceasefire took effect overnight. The first 24 hours define whether it holds. Watch Hezbollah’s posture and whether Israeli forces in southern Lebanon generate an incident.
By The Numbers
Days until the April 8 U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires on April 21, with no second round of talks formally scheduled and the Hormuz blockade still in full effect.
Days until the War Powers Act deadline of April 28. Congress has not authorized Operation Epic Fury. The Senate voted 52-47 this week to reject a resolution that would have required Trump to end operations.
People killed inside Iran since U.S.-Israeli strikes began February 28, according to Iran's forensics chief. An additional 2,100 have died in Lebanon, and 13 U.S. service members have been killed in action.
Countries that joined the UK-France Hormuz summit Thursday — without the United States — to coordinate a strategy for reopening the strait. The coalition's signed statement pledged joint action on safe passage but stopped short of authorizing a military mission.
Estimated windfall profit per hour collected by top oil and gas companies since the Iran war began, according to a Guardian analysis. Congress has not moved on a windfall profits tax.
Quote of the Day
"By law, we got to either approve continued operations or stop."
— Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE), on the approaching War Powers Act deadline of April 28, as congressional Republicans have so far blocked every effort to formally authorize or constrain the Iran war.
https://time.com/article/2026/04/15/trump-iran-war-ending-fox-news/
Bottom Line
Lebanon went quiet last night. That matters. Iran had made a Lebanon ceasefire the condition for returning to the table, and Trump delivered it. Now every clock in the room is running at once: four days until the U.S.-Iran ceasefire expires, twelve days until the War Powers Act deadline, and no confirmed date for the second round of talks that Trump says will end this war. The Strait of Hormuz stays closed, 40 nations just organized without the United States to plan around American inaction, and Hezbollah has its finger "on the trigger." The next 96 hours are the most consequential of this war.
More from TSM
Investigations like this one are funded entirely by readers like you. No advertisers. No corporate backing. Just FOIA requests, document review, and people who believe the public deserves the truth. If this work matters to you, please consider supporting True Signal Media.
Support This Work