After El Mencho: Mexico Burns, Americans Stranded, and the Kingpin Strategy Plays Out Again
Sunday morning, the Mexican army killed Nemesio Rubén Oseguera Cervantes — known as "El Mencho" — the founder and undisputed leader of the Jalisco New Generation Cartel, or CJNG. He was wounded in a military operation near Tapalpa, Jalisco and died while being airlifted to Mexico City. He had a $15 million U.S. bounty on his head. The DEA once estimated CJNG was responsible for at least a third of all drugs entering the United States by air and sea. The cartel was designated a foreign terrorist organization by Trump in February 2025.
By Sunday night, Mexico was on fire. CJNG members torched vehicles and blocked highways across nearly a dozen states — Jalisco, Colima, Michoacan, Nayarit, Guanajuato, and Tamaulipas. Guadalajara, the country's second largest city and a FIFA World Cup host city, became a ghost town as civilians hunkered indoors. Video from Guadalajara International Airport showed National Guard employees sprinting for cover amid reports of armed men inside the terminal. Multiple Mexican states canceled school Monday. The U.S. State Department issued shelter-in-place warnings for American citizens across several affected regions. Thousands of U.S. tourists are currently stranded in Puerto Vallarta and other beach destinations with airports disrupted.
President Claudia Sheinbaum praised Mexican security forces and called for calm. She has been under relentless pressure from the Trump administration to produce results against the cartels, even as she has long criticized the "kingpin strategy" as counterproductive — noting that taking out a leader reliably triggers power vacuums and violence. She is being proven right in real time.
The problem for what comes next: El Mencho's brother is in a U.S. prison. His son, El Menchito, is in prison. His daughter is in prison. There is no obvious successor. Al Jazeera's analyst put it bluntly: "We could now see different regional bosses in the cartel start disputing for power. We saw this happen before. When El Chapo was arrested, it eventually sparked a civil war between the different Sinaloa factions."
The kingpin is dead. The cartel isn't.
Quick Hits
- Abu Dhabi Royal Bought 49% Stake in Trump Family Cryptocurrency Firm. — The Wall Street Journal reports that an Abu Dhabi royal family member acquired a 49% stake in Trump's cryptocurrency business — the latest in a series of financial entanglements between the Trump family and Middle Eastern sovereign wealth. This disclosure lands as Trump is making life-or-death decisions about military action in the Middle East, including whether to strike Iran. [Source]
- Massive Blizzard Hits NYC and Northeast. — A historic winter storm is hammering New York City through New England, with forecasts of up to two feet of snow. NYC Mayor declared a state of emergency. Democracy Now's 30th anniversary event in New York was postponed due to the storm. [Source]
- U.S. Kills 11 People in Strikes on Drug Smuggling Boats in Caribbean/Pacific. — U.S. forces launched strikes on three alleged drug smuggling vessels in the eastern Pacific and Caribbean, killing 11 people. The strikes occurred without prior public announcement and received minimal press coverage. The accountability questions here — who authorized these strikes, under what legal authority, and with what evidence the vessels were drug-related — remain unanswered. [Source]
- Team USA Wins Olympic Hockey Gold for First Time in 46 Years. — Jack Hughes scored in overtime as the U.S. men's hockey team defeated Canada 2-1 in Milan on Sunday, ending a 46-year gold medal drought. Goaltender Connor Hellebuyck was the story of the game, making a series of extraordinary saves to keep the Americans alive. [Source]
What to Watch Today
El Mencho Aftermath — Mexico in Real Time: Violence was still active across multiple states as of early this morning. Watch whether Sheinbaum’s government can restore order in Guadalajara and the Jalisco corridor, whether additional U.S. shelter-in-place alerts are issued, and how the Trump administration responds to a destabilized Mexico on its southern border. Any Trump statement today about Mexico will be significant given his history of using cartel violence to justify policy moves.
Iran 10-Day Clock Starts Now: Trump’s own stated timeline means this week is when the decision window is open. Watch for any movement of the USS Gerald Ford faster than expected, any change in diplomatic messaging from Rubio or the White House, and whether Netanyahu and Rubio’s scheduled meeting gets moved up — which analysts have flagged as a key signal of diplomatic closure.
Cuba: Watch for any Latin American government response to the banking collapse and airport closures, and whether the UN Security Council takes up any emergency session. Mexico’s next move on humanitarian aid will be telling.
WaPo Layoffs: Watch for reactions from press freedom organizations, congressional Democrats, and whether other major newsrooms announce similar cuts in the coming days.
House Voter Suppression Bill: The bill passed by the House — described by critics as the “worst voter suppression bill ever” — now moves to the Senate. Watch whether any Republican senators signal opposition.
By The Numbers
The U.S. government bounty on El Mencho's head, now paid out after the Mexican army killed him Sunday. Six other people were also killed in the operation. Three Mexican soldiers were wounded.
The number of Cuba's international airports that closed February 10 due to complete Jet A-1 aviation fuel exhaustion. The closure was expected to last through at least March 11. Airlines from Canada, Europe, and the U.S. have suspended operations.
Trump's own stated timeline for the world to find out whether the U.S. strikes Iran or reaches a deal. That clock started this weekend with Russian, Chinese, and Iranian naval forces conducting joint exercises in the Strait of Hormuz.
Journalists laid off by the Washington Post, representing one third of its newsroom, as the paper dismantles its sports, local, and significant portions of its world news operations.
Years since the U.S. men's hockey team won an Olympic gold medal, before Sunday night's 2-1 overtime win over Canada in Milan. A rare piece of clean good news on an otherwise dense morning.
Quote of the Day
"Ever since President Sheinbaum has been in power, the army has been way more confrontational, combative against criminal groups in Mexico. But the question now is what happens next."
— David Mora, security analyst, speaking to NBC News following the killing of El Mencho and the eruption of violence across 12 Mexican states.
https://www.nbcnews.com/world/mexico/jalisco-new-generation-cartel-leader-killed-rcna260184
Bottom Line
hree stories dominate the Monday morning landscape and each has a common thread: the absence of stable, predictable systems. In Mexico, the kingpin strategy just killed the kingpin and destabilized the country — as experts predicted it would. In Cuba, an oil blockade engineered from Washington has emptied bank ATMs, grounded all international air travel, and is threatening hospitals and water systems for 11 million people — carried out almost entirely outside public debate or congressional oversight. And a self-imposed 10-day deadline on whether to launch a massive military campaign against Iran — with Russian and Chinese naval forces now physically in the conflict zone — was announced by the president to reporters on a tarmac, not to Congress. Three crises. Three accountability gaps. Same pattern.