Federal regulators are investigating a pattern of large oil futures trades placed minutes before two major Trump administration announcements on Iran. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has opened a formal probe and ordered CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange to hand over trading data. The White House confirmed it warned staff against using nonpublic information for financial gain. Congressional Democrats have demanded trading records and beneficial ownership information for the accounts behind the bets.
The documented record
March 23 — 6:49 a.m. EST
More than $500 million in crude oil futures traded in a single minute — roughly nine times the average volume for that hour. Fifteen minutes later, Trump posted on Truth Social announcing a pause in strikes on Iranian energy infrastructure. Oil prices dropped sharply.
March 24
The White House Management Office emailed all staff: using nonpublic government information to place market bets is a “criminal offense” that “will not be tolerated.” The warning was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.
April 7
Traders placed roughly $950 million in bets on falling oil prices hours before Trump announced a two-week ceasefire with Iran. Oil fell about 15 percent. At least 50 newly created Polymarket accounts placed ceasefire bets shortly before Trump’s 6:30 p.m. Truth Social post.
April 9
Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Sheldon Whitehouse wrote to CFTC Chairman Michael Selig demanding to know whether the agency had opened an investigation and whether its surveillance systems flagged the trades.
April 8–17
Rep. Ritchie Torres called the trades potentially “one of the largest instances of insider trading in history” and demanded beneficial ownership records. Rep. Sam Liccardo cited possible violations of the Securities Exchange Act, the Commodity Exchange Act, and the STOCK Act.
April 15 — CFTC confirms probe
Bloomberg confirmed the CFTC formally opened an investigation. CME and ICE were ordered to produce data. The agency has subpoena authority to compel disclosure of who controls the accounts behind the trades.
The accounts exist. The exchanges have the records. Beneficial ownership is the missing link — and every lawmaker demand points to the same ask: name the traders. Whether regulators with a compromised enforcement infrastructure follow through is the only open question.
Why enforcement is uncertain: The SEC’s top enforcement official resigned after clashing with leadership over cases tied to the president’s circle. The DOJ’s Public Integrity Section — created post-Watergate — has been cut from 36 lawyers to two. CFTC Chair Selig, a Trump appointee, has said the administration wants prediction markets to “flourish.”
White House denial: Spokesman Kush Desai called insider trading implications “baseless and irresponsible.” No senior official has been identified in connection with the trades. The White House did not release the March 24 email publicly.
The question is no longer whether the trades looked unusual. It’s whether regulators will produce the records that show who knew what — and when.