Vance Meets Iran in Islamabad Today — First U.S.-Iran Talks Since 1979
The morning briefing on Vance's historic face-to-face with Iran in Islamabad, a Strait of Hormuz still closed to oil traffic, and Lebanon's bombing threatening to collapse the deal before talks begin.
Vice President JD Vance sits down with Iranian officials in Islamabad today in the highest-level direct engagement between the United States and Iran since the 1979 Islamic Revolution, as the fragile two-week ceasefire that made the talks possible shows deepening cracks over Lebanon and a Strait of Hormuz that remains commercially closed three days in. Vance leads a delegation that includes special envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, meeting Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Ghalibaf — a former IRGC commander — and Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi at Islamabad’s Serena Hotel, which Pakistan requisitioned entirely for the event. Islamabad declared a two-day public holiday and sealed its Red Zone. Pakistan’s army chief, Field Marshal Asim Munir, who brokered the ceasefire through overnight phone calls, will serve as mediator.
The talks open with both sides publicly describing the ceasefire in incompatible terms and neither having released its full proposal to the public. Iran claims the U.S. already violated three clauses of its 10-point plan — most prominently by allowing Israel to continue its largest strikes on Lebanon since the war began. The White House says Lebanon was never part of the deal. Iran’s parliament speaker said Thursday that “a bilateral ceasefire or negotiations is unreasonable” given the Lebanon strikes, and Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan briefly posted — then deleted — notice of the Iranian delegation’s arrival. Over 400 tankers remain anchored in the Persian Gulf. Not one oil or gas tanker transited the Strait of Hormuz on Wednesday, the first full day of the ceasefire. The two-week window expires April 22. The War Powers clock expires April 28.
– Note: I’m currently trying to bring a stranded U.S. Army veteran home and running out of time. If you want to support the work behind this reporting, you can here.
Quick Hits
- War Powers Clock: 18 Days Left, No Authorization, No Briefing — he 60-day War Powers Resolution clock expires April 28 — 18 days from today. Congress has not authorized the war, has not been briefed on the ceasefire terms, and is not represented in Islamabad. The ceasefire does not constitute congressional authorization.
- Iran Executed Political Prisoners During the War — Between March 30 and April 4, Iran executed six political prisoners — including engineers Vahid Bani Amerian, 33, and Pouya Ghobadi, 33 — for alleged ties to the opposition MEK movement, per the National Council of Resistance of Iran. Several young people arrested during January's national uprising were also executed in the same period. Rights groups say the war gave Tehran political cover to accelerate domestic repression. [Source]
- Airfares Up 30-40%; Global Air Routes Still Disrupted — Iran, Iraq, Kuwait, and Bahrain airspace remain closed to commercial flights. The UAE and Qatar are operating at severely reduced capacity. EASA has extended its Middle East flight advisory through April 24. Travelers between Europe and Asia are facing routes that burn significantly more fuel and cost significantly more — a disruption analysts say could take until late 2026 or early 2027 to fully reverse even if a deal holds. [Source]
- Trump Weighing Punishing NATO Allies Over Iran War — The Wall Street Journal reported the Trump administration is considering withdrawing U.S. troops from NATO members it deemed insufficiently supportive during Operation Epic Fury and redeploying them to more cooperative allies. Trump met with NATO Secretary General Rutte Wednesday; Rutte told CNN he expressed understanding of Trump's frustration but said NATO's majority supports degrading Iran's nuclear capabilities. [Source]
What to Watch For
Today in Islamabad: Vance-Ghalibaf talks open at the Serena Hotel. The first-session agenda is unconfirmed, but Lebanon’s status in the ceasefire framework and uranium enrichment are the two issues most likely to determine whether talks survive Day 1.
Strait of Hormuz: MarineTraffic is the live scorecard. Any oil or gas tanker transit would signal the ceasefire is real. Another zero-tanker day signals it is not.
Lebanon: Whether Israel conducts further strikes today will directly affect Iran’s willingness to stay at the table. Watch for any statement from Araghchi or Ghalibaf before or during the session.
War Powers: 18 days until April 28. No hearing scheduled. No AUMF introduced. No congressional delegation is in Islamabad.
By The Numbers
People killed across ten nations since Operation Epic Fury began February 28, per aggregated reporting. The ceasefire has not yet been reflected in the death toll from Lebanon, where 254 were killed in a single day Wednesday.
Tankers, LPG carriers, and LNG vessels still anchored in the Persian Gulf as of Thursday morning. Zero oil or gas tankers crossed the Strait of Hormuz on the ceasefire's first full day.
Price of Brent crude Thursday morning, down from a war peak of $114 but still nearly 50% above pre-war levels. JPMorgan has warned crude could reach $150/barrel if talks collapse.
Days until the War Powers Resolution 60-day clock expires April 28. The ceasefire does not constitute congressional authorization. No briefing has been provided to Congress on the deal's terms.
The date the two-week ceasefire expires, leaving 12 days from today for Islamabad talks to produce a framework before the war either restarts or is extended again.
Quote of the Day
"The U.S. must choose — ceasefire or continued war via Israel. It cannot have both." — Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi, posting on X, April 8, 2026.
https://time.com/article/2026/04/08/iran-us-ceasefire-proposal-talks/
Bottom Line
Today is the most consequential diplomatic day of the 40-day Iran war. Vance sits across from a former IRGC commander in Islamabad in the first direct U.S.-Iran engagement at this level since 1979. The ceasefire that made this possible is already showing fractures: the Strait of Hormuz is commercially closed, Lebanon is still being bombed, and both sides publicly describe the agreement they signed in incompatible terms. The written ceasefire has not been released. Congress has not been briefed. The War Powers clock runs out in 18 days. What Vance and Ghalibaf say — and don't say — in the next few hours will determine whether the next 12 days produce a deal or a resumption of the war.
More from TSM
Investigations like this one are funded entirely by readers like you. No advertisers. No corporate backing. Just FOIA requests, document review, and people who believe the public deserves the truth. If this work matters to you, please consider supporting True Signal Media.
Support This Work