Iran Rejects Peace Plan, $580M Trades Raise Insider Questions | Daily Brief

Oil surges, Marines deploy, and Pentagon planners advance invasion scenarios as diplomacy stalls.

The morning briefing on a war approaching a decision point — Tehran rejecting Washington’s peace proposal, Pentagon invasion options for Kharg Island advancing, and a growing insider trading scandal tied to Trump’s market-moving announcements.

President Trump warned Iran Thursday that time is running out for a deal, as U.S. stock futures fell more than 400 points and oil surged above $106 a barrel after Tehran publicly rejected Washington’s 15-point peace plan and signaled it will keep charging ships to pass through the Strait of Hormuz.

Israel announced Thursday morning that it had killed IRGC Navy Commander Alireza Tangsiri — the officer directly responsible for orchestrating the near-total blockade of the Strait of Hormuz that has pushed U.S. gas prices to their highest point since 2022. Iran did not confirm or deny his death. Tangsiri’s killing is the most significant command-level elimination of the war so far and removes one of the key architects of the maritime stranglehold that has sent Brent crude to nearly $120 per barrel at its peak, disrupted roughly 20% of global oil supplies, and stranded an estimated 20,000 seafarers across the region.

On the ground, approximately 2,000 Marines from the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit are expected to arrive in the region Friday aboard the USS Tripoli, joining an 82nd Airborne Division deployment of roughly 3,000 soldiers already en route. Pentagon planners have briefed Gulf countries that a large portion of Iran’s ballistic and cruise missile capability has been degraded, and administration officials tell Axios that “final blow” options are being developed — including potential ground seizure of Kharg Island, which handles 90% of Iran’s crude exports. Iran has responded by laying traps and moving air defense systems to the island, warning that any ground operation would result in “irreparable” losses for U.S. forces. Iran’s parliament speaker separately threatened that any Gulf state assisting a Kharg invasion would face relentless attacks on its vital energy infrastructure — a warning widely interpreted as aimed at the UAE.

The diplomatic track remains murky. Pakistan confirmed “indirect talks are taking place,” but Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi said his government reviewed the U.S. proposal and found it “maximalist,” noting that Iran’s five conditions for peace include compensation for war damages, sovereignty over Hormuz, and guarantees the conflict will not resume. The White House says it is working to arrange a meeting in Islamabad this weekend. Tehran, for its part, mocked Washington by saying the U.S. is “negotiating with yourselves.”