He Said "We're Winning By a Lot." Then Israel Lit Tehran's Oil Depots on Fire.
The war's second week opens with Israel striking Iranian fuel infrastructure for the first time, Trump contradicting his own investigators on the school strike, and the Ford entering the Red Sea.
President Trump attended the dignified transfer at Dover Air Force Base this afternoon — six flag-draped transfer cases carried off a C-17, six families on the tarmac, the first American dead of Operation Epic Fury coming home. Trump saluted wearing a white ball cap with gold “USA” lettering. Afterward, a reporter asked him whether what he just witnessed made him reconsider the war or the prospect of putting troops on the ground. His answer: “We’re winning the war by a lot.”
On Air Force One flying back to Miami, Trump went further. Asked about ground troops in Iran, he said: “Could there be? Possibly, for very good reason.” Pressed specifically on whether U.S. soldiers could be sent into Iran to secure enriched uranium stockpiles, he said: “At some point maybe we will. That would be a great thing.” He offered no legal authority, no timeline, no congressional consultation. He also said Iran’s map will “probably” not look the same after the war.
Also on Air Force One, Trump blamed Iran for the Minab school strike that killed up to 180 children — directly contradicting the preliminary findings of his own administration’s investigation. “We think it was done by Iran,” Trump told reporters. “Because they are very inaccurate, as you know, with their munitions.” Two U.S. officials had told both NBC News and Reuters that U.S. investigators believe it was likely an American munition.
Then, Saturday evening, Israel escalated the war in a direction it had not gone before. Israeli jets struck Tehran’s oil and fuel infrastructure for the first time since the war began — hitting the Shahran fuel depot, oil storage facilities in Kouhak, a depot in Fardis, and the Tondgouyan Refinery south of the capital. Iranian state media reported approximately 30 large oil storage tanks struck in one wave. The Shahran depot burned completely. AFP journalists on the ground reported massive flames and thick black smoke rising across Tehran. Iran retaliated within hours — the IRGC struck the Haifa refinery in Israel with Khaibar missiles.
Quick Hits
- IRAN STRIKES HAIFA REFINERY IN RETALIATION FOR TEHRAN OIL ATTACKS — Within hours of Israel striking Tehran's fuel infrastructure, the IRGC fired Khaibar ballistic missiles at the Haifa refinery in Israel — a direct tit-for-tat escalation into energy infrastructure on both sides. The refinery exchange marks the first time both sides have deliberately struck each other's civilian fuel supply in the same evening. [Source]
- US EMBASSY BAGHDAD HIT BY KATYUSHA ROCKETS — Katyusha rockets targeted the U.S. Embassy compound in Baghdad Saturday evening — the first attack on the embassy in more than two years. It was not immediately confirmed whether there was damage or casualties. The last recorded strike was late 2023 during a wave of attacks by Iran-aligned militias. [Source]
- DEBRIS FROM DUBAI INTERCEPTION KILLS DRIVER, DAMAGES MARINA HIGH-RISE — A driver was killed in Dubai when debris from an intercepted projectile fell in the Al Barsha area. Separately, debris from a second interception struck a high-rise in Dubai Marina. CNN teams were among those evacuated from the building. Emirates has again suspended all Dubai flights until further notice. [Source]
- IRAN HARDLINERS PUBLICLY BLAST PEZESHKIAN FOR GULF DE-ESCALATION MOVE — Iranian parliament members publicly denounced President Pezeshkian on Saturday for his announcement that Iran would halt strikes on neighboring countries. One MP called the address "weak, unprofessional, and publicly unacceptable" and said it was the "definitive duty" of parliament to respond. The internal split between Iran's moderate president and hardline parliament is now public. [Source]
- SAUDI ARAMCO MONITORING SHAYBAH OIL FIELD AFTER 20 IRANIAN DRONES INTERCEPTED — Saudi Arabia's air defenses intercepted 20 drones fired in five waves toward the Shaybah oil field in the Empty Quarter desert. Saudi Aramco stated it is "closely monitoring developments." The Berri offshore field suffered a "minor impact." Combined with the broader Gulf energy cascade, Saudi production decisions in the next 24 hours are the single most important energy market variable. [Source]
What to Watch For
Ground troops question: Trump floated it twice today aboard Air Force One — once generally, once specifically for securing nuclear material. Watch Sunday shows for whether any administration official walks it back, confirms it, or whether it becomes the dominant political story of the week heading into Monday. No congressional authorization exists for any ground operation in Iran.
Oil infrastructure exchange: Israel struck Tehran’s fuel supply tonight. Iran struck Haifa’s refinery in response. Saudi Arabia intercepted 20 drones over its largest oil field. If Saudi Arabia or the UAE begin cutting production or if a major refinery sustains serious damage Sunday, the energy crisis moves from severe to structural. Watch Aramco and ADNOC statements.
Ford in the Red Sea / Houthi response: The USS Gerald R. Ford is now operating inside Houthi missile range in the Red Sea. The Houthis have expressed support for Iran but have not resumed shipping attacks since the war began. The Ford’s arrival is a direct provocation signal. Watch for any Houthi statement or launch activity.
Lebanon IRGC crackdown: The Lebanese government’s March 5 order to arrest and deport all IRGC members is now 48 hours old. Dozens of IRGC Quds Force officers have already fled Beirut. Watch whether Lebanese security forces begin formal operations, whether Hezbollah responds to its own government, and whether Israel reduces strikes on Lebanon in response to Beirut’s formal break with Tehran.
Trump school strike statement: Trump publicly blamed Iran this afternoon for a strike his own investigators believe the U.S. carried out. Watch whether the Pentagon or any congressional member pushes back publicly, and whether the investigation conclusion is formally released or buried.
By The Numbers
Large oil storage tanks reportedly struck in Saturday evening's Israeli attack on Tehran's fuel infrastructure, the first strikes on Iranian energy supply in eight days of war.
Days USS Gerald R. Ford has been at sea, now operating in the Red Sea after transiting Suez Canal on March 5, with deployment extended to approximately 11 months total.
Nuclear-powered supercarriers the U.S. will have simultaneously within striking distance of Iran once USS George H.W. Bush arrives in the Eastern Mediterranean within the next 10 days.
Bombs sold to Israel by emergency declaration Saturday, bypassing congressional notification requirements.
People displaced in Lebanon as of Saturday, with nearly 300 dead, according to French authorities and the Lebanon Disaster Risk Management Unit.
Quote of the Day
"Probably not."
— President Trump, when asked by a reporter aboard Air Force One whether Iran's map will look the same after the war.
https://www.middleeasteye.net/live/live-us-and-israel-attack-iran
Bottom Line
Trump left Dover saying we're winning by a lot. By Saturday evening, both sides were striking each other's oil refineries, a U.S. carrier was moving into Houthi range in the Red Sea, and the president had floated a ground invasion with no legal authority and no congressional vote — on the same day he publicly blamed Iran for a school strike his own investigators believe America carried out. The war is eight days old. The energy infrastructure of the entire Gulf region is now a target on both sides. The administration has offered no endgame. It has offered no accountability. What it has offered, today, is the possibility of ground troops and the assurance that we are winning.